After attaining the much needed autonomy from Omar Albarshir’s north Sudan just last year, South Sudan has, gradually continued to crave for more opportunities that can augment her social, political and economic growth now as a standalone nation. One of such opportunities is to join the regional consortium - the East African Community(EAC) which currently comprises five nations; Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi.
For a juvenile state of South Sudan’s stature, this is a good move, but it is very fundamental for the actors involved in the bargain to cautiously consider in equal terms, the political and economic ramification of joining the bloc at the moment.
Yes, there are some benefits in the offing: The geopolitical placement of South Sudan alone can improve the cards for herself and other members in and around East Africa. Indeed; Ethiopia, North Sudan, Kenya, Uganda, Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo consider South Sudan as a prosperous destination with raw materials for political and economic strength in the East African corridor.
This set-up would make Government of South Sudan (GOSS) the protagonist in the play for regional balance on the East African soil, thus, giving the new state a big chance for political and economic bulge in the region if they joined the bloc.
GOSS would also harness the chance for early maturity in democracy and good governance before power starts corrupting its current holders in Juba. Today the leadership of Salva Kirr Mayardit is still viewed largely by ordinary southern Sudanese as saviours, just like that of Museveni after the 1986 breakthrough in Uganda, or that of Mugabe and his Zimbabwe in 1980. Therefore, the immediate joining of the regional bloc is an asset that can enable early political counselling by EAC member states for GOSS to follow the right democratic path so as to avoid future internal power struggles that might tear the country asunder.
For specific EAC member states like Uganda, the entry of South Sudan would clear the clouds of war especially the northern Uganda mystery epitomised by the spiritual war Lord Joseph Kony. The fugitive has in the past used the jungles in southern Sudan with support from his fellow criminal Omar Al Bashir of the “Arab Sudan” to cause atrocities in Uganda and Southern Sudan. But the teamwork of the SPLM and the UPDF contributed hugely to the shrinking of Kony’s project in the two countries. Such teamwork can be sustainable with the admission of South Sudan in the EAF.
As for Kenya; opening the door for South Sudan is another window of opportunity for the East Africa’s economic giant to reap big and compete at continental level. Already, Kenya has scooped over $5 billion of the new investments like the construction of a 1,400 kilometre oil pipeline linking Juba to Lamu port, the construction of an oil refinery and seaport in Lamu itself and the building of Mombasa –Kampala rail line.
Kenya and Uganda are also twin beneficiaries of the agro-based products and raw materials sold in the South Sudan market. Economically, this is also good for GOSS only if the governments of the former countries really become transparent enough, otherwise GOSS should take time, think carefully, and bargain carefully before joining the bloc.
I believe the best case scenario for forming trading blocs is having equal economic strengths, and south Sudan is of great disadvantage here. The country still needs to organise herself internally by strengthening the economic and political systems before thinking of merging with her better developed neighbours. Otherwise, she might in the long run suffer most from unilateral demands by some of her fairly developed neighbours.
For instance, in 2010 at the height of the European Union (EU) and the East African Economic partnership (EAC -EPA) negotiations, Kenya threatened to break lines with EAC if it rejected signing the treaty with the EU, thus forcing members to do things involuntarily. Such pressures from powerful states can be dangerous on smaller nations.
Another tricky thing that South Sudan needs to put into perspective is the way of dealing with north Sudan leader Omar Al Bar-shirr who is wanted by the ICC for allegations of committing crimes against humanity in the Darfur region and other parts of South Sudan.
Do all East African heads recognise that Bashir should be sidelined, and are they able to apply economic and political sanctions on Khartoum for her continued intimidation and assault on southern Sudanese people? This is important because AU leaders last year surprised the world by defending Bashir from the arm of the ICC. If this cooperation is lacking, then it is useless for south Sudan to join EAC now. The bottom-line: GOSS needs good time to sort out itself before any plan B.
